If these fall below average, we could garner some information on if Bellinger’s power is being overstated. However, he also hits the ball hard enough to warrant this sacrifice in his profile. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The offer was firmly declined. Cody James Bellinger (born July 13, 1995) is an American professional baseball first baseman and outfielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers of Major League Baseball (MLB). Both players were basically “new” in 2017 so this is the only relevant data available. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. Thanks to Andrew Perpetua, we can examine how Bellinger is impacting the baseball by looking at his exit velocity by batted ball types. To put it another way, we want to see that he hits the ball hard when he makes contact in the air. We hoped you liked reading An Exercise Featuring Cody Bellinger by Brad Johnson! Bellinger has swing and miss. However, what should reasonably be expected for the Dodgers phenom for the rest of 2017? FanGraphs Membership. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, While defense isn’t really pertinent to our discussions for ottoneu/fantasy, (Bellinger has already secured OF eligibility for 2018), Jeff does good work. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He is seeing a below average number of pitches in the zone (typical for power hitters), swings at an above average rate, and makes below average contact. He also writes @thepointofpgh. Becomes a free agent entering the 2024 season, after the conclusion of the 2023 season. by Retrosheet. This is a very encouraging list. Completely agree that he will regress, but I don’t think that means success isn’t continued. Support FanGraphs. This averages out to a ~120 wRC+ for the group, which in Dodger Stadium is around a .350 wOBA. FanGraphs does not have a paywall. That fear is mostly what makes him available. (Shameless Plug, Andrew’s piece from yesterday is excellent for any baseball fan trying to understand what all this talk of exit velocity and launch angles means. by Handedness, 2013 June Amateur Draft - Round: 4, Pick: 18, Overall: 124, Team: Los Angeles Dodgers. Sign In. All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. Because of this, I wanted to look at a list of comparable hitters from the past 10 years who appear to be in similar classes to Bellinger. At pick 193, you can get a seemingly more volatile facsimile of Bellinger who plays only 70 percent of the time. For display purposes, I have only shown the seasons from 2014-2016, though all seasons from 2007-2016 were included in the average calculation. This is encouraging. Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. Cody Bellinger pitch% heatmaps. 2020 Updated In-Season Projections Examining Bellinger’s batted ball types, we can see the that his average exit velocity on low drives, high drives, and fly balls is comfortably above average (98.5, 95.8, and 96.2 respectively). Particularly in the case where a player has a high K profile with scouts on record saying he’s got a violent swing. Recall, injuries and fatigue clearly played a role in Thames’ mid-season performance. However, Thames did show poorly in some indicators I track to test the potential realness of a perceived platoon – namely walk, strikeout, and ground ball rates against left-handed pitchers. By compressing so much of his production into April, he left his owners with a stale taste. Compared to .265/.382/.551, 15 percent walk rate, and 27.7 percent strikeout rate with the platoon advantage. as distributed by STATS. Jeff Zimmerman has already dived into Bellinger’s defense in the OF, which may be better than expected. However, the swing and miss is a real thing. I’m cautiously optimistic. Signed By Bryzzo Souvenir Company for $29. To give a few names, you have a couple seasons of Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Davis, and J.D. To dive into this, I started with Bellinger’s plate discipline numbers. as distributed by STATS. Mystery Flaw #3 (the reveal): Hit .345/.466/.810 with 11 home runs, a 17.5 percent walk rate, and 22.3 percent strikeout rate in 103 April plate appearances. Bellinger, it should be noted, has a 24.5 ADP in NFBC. by Retrosheet. To view this in terms of players, we don’t need him to be Ben Revere (making contact on everything, hitting a buch of ground balls, with zero power). We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. Cody Bellinger LAD 1B/OF L Born: 07/13/1995 (Age: 25) FanGraphs Player Page. Avg Salary All Leagues $41.36 Last 10 adds $55.30 FanGraphs Points $41.45 Last 10 adds $61.30. That apparent volatility he showed by mashing in April and September could be a red herring. Both can be true. That would put him on par with our mystery man, assuming we aren’t projecting batted ball regression for him too (we are). by Retrosheet. Cody Bellinger has been superb in his call up with the Dodgers, hitting 6 home runs in 65 plate appearances. It’s a game of gambles. I think we’re all a little confused on some level. Martinez. What about his September? From Andrew’s site, we can see the various launch angles classifications for each type of batted ball, along with the average exit velocity and wOBA from each batted ball type. For what it’s worth, Bellinger did not show any issues with his walk, strikeout, or ground ball rates against lefties. While making contact doesn’t need to be Bellinger’s forte for sustained success, we want to see that he has the bat speed to sustain a lack of contact. Follow him on twitter @Ottoneutrades. Along with the good version of Jose Abreu, and Kris Bryant and Freddie Freeman on their path to stardom. You should read it.). Many power hitters do. Projected to be arbitration eligible for the 2021 season. You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. The first place I want to start is with Bellinger’s scouting report courtesy of our own Eric Longenhagen. That doesn’t necessarily doom him or create a problem – one would expect a player swinging for the fences to make less contact – but it does show the profile of a power hitter, with the typical warts. by Handedness, 10 Starting Pitchers To Consider In Deep Leagues, My Dream Legend Pitcher List for MLB The Show 18. How about now? And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. If the other owner communicated he really wants Kopech then I think you made a fair offer. Avg Salary All Leagues $39.45 Last 10 adds $55.90 FanGraphs Points $39.45 Last 10 adds $60.90 Rolling 30-day Averages. and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. A 193.3 ADP. It’s possible he doesn’t have a platoon. Positions 1B/OF 2021 Projected Positions 1B/OF . Those are undeniably comparable batting lines. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He hit just .182/.270/.394 with a 8.1 percent walk rate and 36.9 percent strikeout rate against same-handed pitchers. There’s also a large chunk of useful seasons from players who are non-stars Russell Branyan (the good seasons), Brandon Moss, and Mark Trumbo. His team plans to rotate five star-quality players through four positions. It doesn’t take an advanced statistician to understand that the .446 wOBA he has posted thus far will regress, but the question is how far? as distributed by STATS. This, by the way, is why thinking probabilistically is difficult. Yep, we’re talking about Eric Thames. In looking at Bellinger’s batted balls, I want to see if his average exit velocity on fly balls is above average. My sales pitch was roundly poo-pooed. Kopech. While he only has 65 plate appearance, I wanted to see what type of hitter he has been so far to better understand the selection of pitches he is taking. Updated: Saturday, October 17, 2020 7:17 AM ET, Park Factors He was named an All-Star and the National League's Rookie of the Year in 2017, and won the National League Most Valuable Player Award in 2019. We know that he has a swing (from the scouting reports) designed to produce balls in the air, so we want to confirm that the balls in the air are being hit hard enough to be productive fly balls. A fresher Thames, a Thames who spent the offseason better preparing his legs for the grind of MLB baseball, could very well operate at peak efficiency. It’s also possible that Bellinger, who didn’t show a platoon split last season, does actually have a split. FanGraphs Store. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. While many of us base our views of a player’s talent on projections, especially in fantasy circles, it is not uncommon for there to be discourse regarding the rate at which projections update for either a player’s debut, or a change in approach. Mystery Flaw #1: Big platoon splits. While our list certainly includes some survivor bias, it paints a picture of an at least league average player and a current $15-$20 OF in ottoneu fangraphs points leagues. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. He doesn’t protect or shorten up with two strikes and instead he’s constantly threatening low-flying aircraft with his incredible torque, hand speed and uppercut swing. The owner in question has been begging me for him since I joined the league in November. With Andrew Toles out for the season with a torn ACL, the likelihood of Bellinger staying in the big leagues has improved. The difficulty is that even with Joc’s struggles, he is still useful fantasy outfielder. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Cody Bellinger LAD 1B/OF L $40: January 31, 2020 3:45 PM : Randy Winn = Chevy Chase: Ozzie Albies ATL 2B S $24 Matthew Boyd DET SP L $6 Michael Kopech RP R $6 Joey Bart SFG (AA) C R $3: Zack Attack: Saved by the Bellinger: Cody Bellinger LAD 1B/OF L $36: January 25, 2020 7:43 PM : BlueHawks Cody Bellinger LAD 1B/OF L $54 Since the Brewers have the personnel to allow it, he’ll probably rarely start against southpaw pitchers. Bellinger is the son of Clay Bellinger, who also played in MLB. – swing rate 46.5%. I tried not to filter the list too much because I didn’t want to take Bellinger’s statistics with too much credibility due to sample size issues. Let’s put some faces on similar hitters to Bellinger. It looks like the scouting report, so far, has been spot on. Bellinger hit a few more fly balls and hence benefited from some extra home runs. The other guy? It has a once-in-a-lifetime feel to it. To account for this I simply judged if he was below or above league average in relation to a couple statistics. On the low end we are looking at the bad version of Ryan Howard, Ben Paulsen, Juan Francisco, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Additionally, I made judgement calls on only including seasons with 14%+ swinging strikes, and over .180 ISO as both appear to be comfortably within the range of possibility. Games. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Back to the scouting report. Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. Check out our. Gift a Membership. Well, maybe not proof, but it’s some kind of encouraging. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, We just recently updated our player pages for mobile and added a few new features! Signed By Dayton Grounders for $45. The good news is this, of the 56 season that qualify, the chance of a bust (under 105 wRC+) is roughly 21%, with the chance of a 120 wRC+ roughly 43%.
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